Hint Analytics
Behavioral data for systematic investors

Markets price the words. We measure what leaks out.

Hint Analytics measures involuntary facial muscle leakage in public-company executives: the small movements that escape before a rehearsed answer lands. It is a signal orthogonal to what the transcript says, scored answer by answer against each executive's own history and delivered point-in-time.

Live leakage map Synthetic subject · illustrative
Anxiety leakage0.00
Instability0.00
Suppression0.00
Hint composite0.0σ
17,345
Executive interviews and appearances in the research archive
515
Chief executives, each linked to the role they held on the day they spoke
3
Channels, face, voice and language, aligned to the same question and answer
0
Days of look-ahead. Every value is stamped to when it became public
Thesis

Every desk now parses transcripts. Tone, sentiment and keyword counts are a crowded trade. The face is not. Executives rehearse their words. They cannot rehearse the muscles that move before the words arrive.

Involuntary.

Leakage is the brief, uncontrolled muscle movement that breaks through a composed expression. It happens in fractions of a second, below conscious control, and media training does little to stop it.

Orthogonal.

The signal comes from the face, not the words, so it is built to sit apart from transcript sentiment, vocal tone and the standard factor set. It adds information instead of repeating what your models already see.

Personal.

Some executives are always animated and some never move. Every reading is measured against the same person's earlier appearances, so a change means something.

Look, I think margins… we'd expect them to be broadly in line, probably. One answer, taken apart.

Fig. 1
Synthetic data

An answer to an analyst question about margins. The hedged phrases line up with bursts of anxiety leakage, unstable facial behavior and rising vocal stress, while the lower face works to hold a neutral expression. Against this executive's own baseline, the composite moves well outside its normal range.

How a signal is made. Five steps, no shortcuts.

01

Source and identify

Interviews and public appearances, matched to the executive in role on that date. Departed and returning CEOs stay in the record, so history is free of survivorship.

Point-in-time
02

Segment the conversation

Each appearance is split into questions and answers. Small talk is separated from material topics, so scores sit on the moments investors care about.

Answer-level
03

Capture the leakage

Involuntary facial muscle movement measured frame by frame, with vocal stress and the language of each answer aligned to the same moment.

Face · Voice · Text
04

Baseline against the person

Every reading is compared with the same executive's earlier appearances, adjusted for setting, and shrunk where history is thin.

Within-person
05

Deliver to research

Anxiety leakage, behavioral instability, suppression and a composite, keyed by security identifiers and release timestamps and ready to join to your stack.

Parquet · CSV
Applications

Built for teams who test everything before they trust it.

Event research

Earnings drift

Executive behavior in the weeks before results and the days after, studied against factor-adjusted returns.

Derivatives

Realized against implied

Whether what leaks from a CEO's face says something about volatility that option prices have not yet reflected.

Governance

Leadership change

A record of how an executive's behavior shifts across a tenure, through transitions, and from one setting to the next.

Fundamental

Analyst workflow

Answer-level flags that take an analyst straight to the forty seconds of an interview worth watching twice.

Request the sample.

Research partners

We work with a small number of funds. Coverage files, a data dictionary and a point-in-time sample are available under NDA.